November 1, 2026 · by Andy Moore

Your 2026 election guide: Oklahoma, the nation, and democracy on the ballot

Oklahoma votes Tuesday, Nov. 3, and so does the rest of the country. Control of Congress, 36 governorships, two Oklahoma state questions and a raft of measures about how Americans vote are all on the line.

This guide is our nonpartisan field manual for the week: how to vote in Oklahoma, what's on your ballot, where the national races stand, which states are voting on democracy itself, and how to read the returns as they come in.

If you read only one thing: polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Tuesday, and if you're in line by 7, you can vote.

How to vote in Oklahoma on Tuesday

  • When: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. If you're in line by 7 p.m., you can vote (Oklahoma State Election Board).
  • Where: your assigned polling place, which may have changed since you last voted. Look it up, and see a sample ballot, in the OK Voter Portal.
  • What to bring: a photo ID issued by the U.S., the State of Oklahoma or a federally recognized tribe, or the free voter ID card your county election board mailed you. No ID? You can still vote a provisional ballot by signing an affidavit (Proof of identity rules).
  • Did SQ 846 change that? No. The voter ID amendment voters approved in August writes an ID requirement into the state constitution, but the State Election Board says it doesn't change current law for this election (KOKH Fox 25).

For everything else, from registration to sample ballots, visit our Voter Hub.

What's on Oklahoma's ballot

Oklahomans will choose a new governor, fill an open U.S. Senate seat, elect all five members of the U.S. House, the entire state House and half the state Senate, decide whether to retain nine appellate judges, and vote on two state questions. Let's Fix This recommends a no vote on both state questions.

State Question 845: the Judicial Nominating Commission

SQ 845 would restructure the commission that screens applicants for Oklahoma's appellate courts. It would tie the commission's districts to today's congressional map instead of 1967 lines, remove limits on how many members can come from one party, let attorneys and their relatives serve, and allow consecutive terms. The Legislature referred it to the ballot (Ballotpedia News).

Our position: vote no. We believe it would open the door to more politics and money in how Oklahoma picks its judges. Read the ballot title, both sides' arguments and our reasoning in SQ 845 and the Judicial Nominating Commission: Vote no.

State Question 847: property tax assessment caps

SQ 847 would lower how fast the taxable value of property can rise each year, starting in 2027: from 3% to 1.75% for homesteads and farmland, and from 5% to 4% for other property. The fiscal impact is listed as unknown (News 9). House Speaker Kyle Hilbert, Senate President Pro Tem Lonnie Paxton and the Oklahoma Farm Bureau support it; the Oklahoma Policy Institute and Oklahoma City Mayor David Holt oppose it.

Our position: vote no. It's a tax break that saves the typical homeowner little while cutting the local revenue that funds schools, roads and public safety. Read the details and our reasoning in SQ 847 and your property taxes: Vote no.

Statewide offices

The governor's office and the U.S. Senate seat are both open. Decision Desk HQ rates both races Safe Republican (governor, Senate). Nominees are from News 9's general election preview.

  • Governor: Mike Mazzei (R), Cyndi Munson (D); independents Robert Brooks Sr., Jerry Griffin and Orlando Bush
  • U.S. Senate: Kevin Hern (R), N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas (D), Sevier White (L); independents Ron Meinhardt and Curtis Stinnett
  • Lieutenant Governor: T.W. Shannon (R), Kelly Forbes (D)
  • Attorney General: Jon Echols (R), Nick Coffey (D)
  • Superintendent of Public Instruction: Robert Franklin (R), Jennettie Marshall (D)
  • Treasurer: Cindy Byrd (R), Kiefer Perry (L)
  • Labor Commissioner: Kevin West (R), Kevin Dawson (D), Mike Hall (L)
  • Insurance Commissioner: Bob Sullivan (R), Craig MacIntyre (D)
  • Corporation Commissioner: Brad Boles (R), Rhonda Eastman (D)

State Auditor Melissa Capps (R) was elected without opposition and won't appear on the ballot (KOSU).

U.S. House

  • OK-1 (open): Mark Tedford (R), John Croisant (D) · DDHQ: Likely R
  • OK-2: Rep. Josh Brecheen (R), Brandon Wade (D), Ronnie Hopkins (I) · DDHQ: Safe R
  • OK-3: Rep. Frank Lucas (R), Suzie Byrd (D) · DDHQ: Safe R
  • OK-4: Rep. Tom Cole (R), Mitchell Jacob (D), Rocco Bonacci (I) · DDHQ: Safe R
  • OK-5: Rep. Stephanie Bice (R), Jena Nelson (D), Robert Henri (I), Austin Nieves (I) · DDHQ: Likely R

Candidates from News 9's House guide; ratings from Decision Desk HQ.

Judges and local measures

Voters decide whether to retain four Supreme Court justices (Kane, Jett, Kuehn and Darby), Court of Criminal Appeals Judge Robert L. Hudson, and four Court of Civil Appeals judges (Hixon, Wiseman, Barnes and Huber). OK Policy has a plain-language explainer.

Locally, Oklahoma County voters decide a 0.4-cent, 25-year sales tax for a new county jail (KOSU), and Tulsa voters decide whether to raise the hotel guest tax from 5% to 9.9% to fund work on the BOK Center and convention center (News On 6). Check your sample ballot for everything on yours.

Oklahoma's early vote

Oklahomans cast 186,488 in-person early ballots from Oct. 28 to 31, up 41% from 132,297 in 2022 (State Election Board; 2022 figure via KOKH Fox 25). Registered Republicans cast 48% of them, Democrats 38% and independents 13%, compared with Oklahoma's overall registration of 53% Republican, 25% Democratic and 20% independent (State Election Board, Sept. 30). Mail voting is roughly flat: about 65,000 mail ballots went out this year, compared with about 67,000 mail ballots cast in 2022.

The national picture

The major forecasts and prediction markets all favor Democrats to win the U.S. House, and most now favor them in the Senate as well. Forecasts are probabilities, not results: a race rated 60–40 goes the other way four times in ten.

  • Silver Bulletin (FLIPR): House about 95%, Senate upper 70s · Projected Democratic seats: +25 net House seats on average · Updated Nov. 1
  • Decision Desk HQ: House 83%, Senate 62% · Projected Democratic seats: House 241; Senate 52 · Updated Oct. 31 – Nov. 1
  • Poliwave: House 88%, Senate 77% · Projected Democratic seats: House 230; Senate 52 · Updated Oct. 31
  • Kalshi (prediction market): House 94%, Senate 71% · Updated Nov. 1

Silver Bulletin's exact Senate figure sits behind a paywall; Nate Silver has described it publicly as in the upper 70s (Yahoo News).

The math. Republicans hold the House 219–214, so Democrats need a net gain of three seats to reach 218. Republicans hold the Senate 53–47, and the vice president breaks ties, so Democrats need a net gain of four.

The generic ballot. Asked which party they'll support for Congress, voters favor Democrats by about 9 points: 52.2% to 43.6% in FiftyPlusOne's average as of Nov. 1. For scale, Democrats won the 2018 House popular vote by 8.6 points and gained 41 seats (Wikipedia).

Presidential approval. President Trump's approval averages 38.5% approve, 59.6% disapprove in Poliwave's tracking. The president's party has historically lost ground in midterms, especially when approval is underwater.

Redistricting. Nine states redrew congressional maps mid-decade. Cook Political Report estimates the new lines favor Republicans by roughly four seats on net, with Republican gains in Texas, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Alabama, Louisiana and Tennessee offset partly by Democratic gains in California and Utah (Yahoo News).

Senate races to watch

Senate control runs through about a half-dozen races, most of them in states President Trump carried in 2024. Ratings are Decision Desk HQ's as of Nov. 1; projected margins are Poliwave's model as of Oct. 31. Races are sorted closest first.

  • Kansas (R): Adam Hamilton (D), Sen. Roger Marshall (R) · DDHQ: Toss Up · Poliwave: D +0.4
  • Nebraska (R): Dan Osborn (I), Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) · DDHQ: Lean R · Poliwave: Osborn +0.5
  • Iowa (R, open): Josh Turek (D), Ashley Hinson (R) · DDHQ: Toss Up · Poliwave: D +0.6
  • Maine (R): Troy Jackson (D), Sen. Susan Collins (R) · DDHQ: Lean D · Poliwave: D +2.7
  • Texas (R, open): James Talarico (D), Ken Paxton (R) · DDHQ: Toss Up · Poliwave: D +2.8
  • Ohio special (R): Sherrod Brown (D), Sen. Jon Husted (R) · DDHQ: Toss Up · Poliwave: D +3.4
  • Alaska (R): Mary Peltola (D), Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) · DDHQ: Toss Up · Poliwave: D +3.5
  • South Carolina (R): Annie Andrews (D), Sen. Darline Graham (R) · DDHQ: Lean R · Poliwave: R +4.3
  • Michigan (D, open): Abdul El-Sayed (D), Mike Rogers (R) · DDHQ: Lean D · Poliwave: D +5.4
  • Mississippi (R): Scott Colom (D), Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) · DDHQ: Likely R · Poliwave: R +5.9
  • New Hampshire (D, open): Chris Pappas (D), John E. Sununu (R) · DDHQ: Likely D · Poliwave: D +7.0
  • Montana (R, open): Alani Bankhead (D), Seth Bodnar (I), Kurt Alme (R) · DDHQ: Likely R · Poliwave: R +8.1

Also on the board: Georgia, Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) vs. Mike Collins (R), Likely D. North Carolina (open), Roy Cooper (D) vs. Michael Whatley (R), Likely D. Minnesota (open), Peggy Flanagan (D) vs. Michele Tafoya (R), Likely D. Florida special, Sen. Ashley Moody (R) vs. Angie Nixon (D), Likely R. Louisiana (open), Julia Letlow (R) vs. Jamie Davis (D), Likely R.

Why these races are unusual. Two Republican senators lost their own primaries this year, John Cornyn in Texas and Bill Cassidy in Louisiana. Maine Democrats replaced their nominee by convention in July. South Carolina's nominee is Darline Graham, appointed after her brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham, died in office. In Nebraska, no Democrat is on the ballot; the state Democratic Party endorsed independent Dan Osborn (Wikipedia). Poliwave's model doesn't assign newly elected independents to either caucus, and it gives an 8% chance that they end up deciding control.

House races to watch

Democrats need a net gain of three seats; Decision Desk HQ projects 241 Democratic seats and rates 10 races as true toss-ups (DDHQ, Oct. 31). Cook Political Report projects about 240 (Yahoo News).

  • FL-22 (new seat): Pia Dandiya (D), Casey Askar (R) · DDHQ favorite's chance: 51% · New district from Florida's 2026 map
  • IA-2 (R, open): Lindsay James (D), Joe Mitchell (R) · DDHQ favorite's chance: 52% · Open after Ashley Hinson ran for Senate
  • ME-2 (D, open): Matthew Dunlap (D), Paul LePage (R) · DDHQ favorite's chance: 53% · Open after Rep. Jared Golden retired; Trump won it by 9 in 2024
  • MT-1 (R, open): Sam Forstag (D), Aaron Flint (R) · DDHQ favorite's chance: 53% · Open after Rep. Ryan Zinke retired
  • OH-7 (R): Brian Poindexter (D), Rep. Max Miller (R) · DDHQ favorite's chance: 53% · Redrawn under Ohio's new map
  • CO-3 (R): Dwayne Romero (D), Rep. Jeff Hurd (R) · DDHQ favorite's chance: 57% · Rated R+5 by Cook's partisan index
  • FL-9 (D): Rep. Darren Soto (D), Dan Green (R) · DDHQ favorite's chance: 58% · Redrawn from D+4 to R+8

DDHQ's other toss-ups are TX-15, TX-35 (both reshaped by Texas's new map) and PA-1, held by Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R) in a district Kamala Harris narrowly won. Candidates and district changes are from Wikipedia's House race list; DDHQ's table doesn't label which party is favored in each toss-up.

Close to home. All five of Oklahoma's districts favor Republicans: DDHQ rates OK-1 and OK-5 Likely Republican and the other three Safe (DDHQ House).

Governor races to watch

Thirty-six states elect governors this year, and the 36 seats up are split evenly, 18 held by each party. Decision Desk HQ favors Democrats in 22 of them (DDHQ governors, Oct. 31); candidates are from Wikipedia.

  • Nevada (R): Aaron Ford (D), Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) · DDHQ: Toss Up
  • Ohio (R, open): Amy Acton (D), Vivek Ramaswamy (R) · DDHQ: Toss Up
  • Georgia (R, open): Keisha Lance Bottoms (D), Rick Jackson (R) · DDHQ: Lean D
  • Florida (R, open): David Jolly (D), Byron Donalds (R) · DDHQ: Lean R
  • Kansas (D, open): Cindy Holscher (D), Ty Masterson (R) · DDHQ: Lean R
  • Alaska (R, open): Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D); Dave Bronson, Treg Taylor, Bernadette Wilson (all R) · DDHQ: Lean D
  • Iowa (R, open): Rob Sand (D), Zach Lahn (R) · DDHQ: Lean D
  • Texas (R): Gina Hinojosa (D), Gov. Greg Abbott (R) · DDHQ: Lean R
  • New Hampshire (R): Cinde Warmington (D), Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) · DDHQ: Lean R
  • Wisconsin (D, open): David Crowley (D), Tom Tiffany (R) · DDHQ: Lean D
  • South Carolina (R, open): Jermaine Johnson (D), Alan Wilson (R) · DDHQ: Lean R
  • Arizona (D): Gov. Katie Hobbs (D), Andy Biggs (R) · DDHQ: Likely D
  • Michigan (D, open): Jocelyn Benson (D), John James (R) · DDHQ: Likely D

Alaska elects its governor and U.S. senator by ranked-choice voting, so a final result may take days. Oklahoma's governor's race is covered in the Oklahoma section above.

Democracy on the ballot

Voters in 13 states will decide 15 measures on how elections themselves work, including a record six voter ID measures and six citizen-only voting amendments (Ballotpedia News). Several more would change the citizen initiative process, the tool Oklahomans used to expand Medicaid and reform criminal sentencing. A YES vote does what's described below; polls are the latest listed by Ballotpedia, shown yes–no.

How we vote

  • Ranked-choice voting: Alaska Measure 2 · A yes vote repeals top-four primaries and ranked-choice general elections; restores party primaries · Latest poll: 48–48 (Data for Progress)
  • Primaries: Massachusetts Question 3 · A yes vote replaces party primaries with a single top-two primary · Latest polls split: 49–39 to 41–44
  • Redistricting: Colorado Amendment 86 · A yes vote requires commission and state Supreme Court approval for any mid-decade congressional map; needs 55% · Latest poll: 37–28
  • Redistricting: Maryland Question 3 · A yes vote removes constitutional criteria such as compactness from congressional maps · Latest poll: 25–53 (UMBC)
  • Redistricting: Missouri Proposition A · A yes vote upholds the legislature's 2025 congressional map (NO repeals it) · Latest poll: 35–32
  • Voter ID: Arizona Prop 144 · A yes vote requires ID for all voters, including by mail; adds citizen-only voting to the constitution · Latest poll: none listed
  • Voter ID: California Prop 39 · A yes vote requires ID to vote in person and an ID number by mail; adds citizenship verification · Latest poll: 41–58 (PPIC)
  • Voter ID: Colorado Amendment 84 · A yes vote requires an ID number plus signature on mail ballots; needs 55% · Latest poll: 48–42
  • Voter ID: Nevada Question 7 · A yes vote requires photo ID in person and an ID number by mail (second required vote; passed with 73% in 2024) · Latest poll: none listed
  • Voter ID: North Carolina amendment · A yes vote extends the constitution's photo ID requirement to mail voting · Latest poll: none listed
  • Voter ID: Ohio Issue 3 · A yes vote writes photo ID for in-person voting into the constitution · Latest poll: none listed
  • Citizen-only voting: Alaska Measure 3, Arkansas Issue 1, Kansas, South Dakota Amendment J, West Virginia Amendment 1 · A yes vote states that only U.S. citizens may vote · Latest poll: Arkansas: 60–27
  • Registration: Massachusetts Question 4 · A yes vote allows registration at the polls on Election Day · Latest poll: 59–33 (Suffolk)
  • Voting rights: Virginia Question 3 · A yes vote restores voting rights to people with felony convictions upon release from prison · Latest poll: 64–30 (January)

Direct democracy and accountability

  • Initiative process: Missouri Amendment 6 · A yes vote bars the legislature from changing voter-passed laws without 80% of both chambers and a public vote · Latest poll: 46–26
  • Initiative process: Montana CI-133 · A yes vote makes initiative and referendum a constitutional right · Latest poll: none listed
  • Initiative process: North Dakota Measure 1 and South Dakota Amendment L · Yes votes require 60% to pass constitutional amendments · Latest poll: South Dakota: 29–60
  • Initiative process: Utah Amendment B · A yes vote requires 60% for citizen initiatives that create or raise taxes · Latest poll: 34–56 (Noble Predictive)
  • Initiative process: Idaho HJR 4 · A yes vote bars citizen initiatives on marijuana and other drugs · Latest poll: none listed
  • Initiative process: California Prop 43 · A yes vote requires two-thirds approval for citizen-initiated local special taxes · Latest poll: 42–55 (PPIC)
  • Plain language: Colorado Amendment 85 · A yes vote requires ballot questions at an eighth-grade reading level · Latest poll: 67–19
  • Campaign finance: California Prop 4 · A yes vote lifts the state ban on public financing of campaigns · Latest poll: 45–52 (PPIC)
  • Campaign finance: Michigan Proposal 2 · A yes vote bars political contributions from regulated utilities and large state contractors · Latest poll: 74–17
  • Term limits: Nebraska Amendment 1 · A yes vote lets legislators serve three consecutive terms instead of two · Latest poll: none listed
  • Judicial elections: Montana CI-132 · A yes vote makes judicial elections nonpartisan · Latest poll: none listed

Locally, Honolulu; Irvine, California; and Longmont, Colorado, vote on adopting ranked-choice voting (Ballotpedia News).

Oklahoma's democracy questions

Oklahomans already voted on one this year: SQ 846, which writes a voter ID requirement into the state constitution, passed Aug. 25 with about 55% (Ballotpedia). SQ 845 on Tuesday's ballot changes how judges are chosen rather than how elections work.

SQ 836, the citizen initiative for top-two open primaries, isn't on the ballot. In March the Secretary of State ruled it short, counting 142,567 valid signatures against 172,993 required after rejecting 57,841 under a data-matching rule (KGOU). Supporters' challenge is pending at the Oklahoma Supreme Court (Oklahoma Voice). Let's Fix This supports a top-two open primary.

Early voting has already set a midterm record

More than 51 million Americans had voted by midday Saturday, Oct. 31, passing the 45.9 million who voted before Election Day in all of 2022, per the University of Florida's Election Lab (Scripps News).

The growth is in person, not by mail. More than 28 million people have voted early in person, up from about 20.5 million in 2022 (Scripps). Mail ballots returned stood at about 22.9 million as of Friday night (Newsweek), on pace to finish near 2022's level rather than far above it. In other words, more voters are choosing to show up early in person, while mail voting is holding steady.

Where. Texas leads with 6.9 million early votes, followed by California (5.1 million) and Florida (4.7 million). AP found early voting up 50% in Texas and 83% in South Carolina compared with 2022 (Newsweek).

By party. In the 27 states that report early voters' party registration, registered Democrats cast about 43% of early ballots and registered Republicans about 32% (Newsweek). That tells us who has voted, not how they voted. Republicans have recently been more likely to vote on Election Day, so early leads often shrink once Tuesday's votes are counted.

An early-voting record doesn't guarantee record turnout overall. Many early voters would have voted on Election Day anyway; the final number depends on who shows up Tuesday.

How to read the night

Early returns are not final results. The order in which votes are counted can make either party look stronger than it is for hours.

  • Early votes often come first. States like Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas typically post early and mail ballots soon after polls close. Because early voters have leaned Democratic this year, Democratic leads in those first numbers may narrow as Election Day precincts report.
  • Some states count mail last. Where mail ballots are counted after Election Day votes, the shift can run the other way late in the night.
  • Compare results with expectations, not with zero. A candidate leading by 3 in a state forecast at +8 is underperforming; one trailing by 2 in a state forecast at −6 is overperforming. Comparing early margins with the forecasts above is the quickest way to spot a polling miss in either direction.
  • Watch the clusters. The Senate tipping point is not one state but a group: Maine, Texas, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa and Kansas each decide control in roughly 11–12% of Poliwave's simulations. These races will likely move together; if one breaks clearly, the others probably lean the same way.
  • Some races take days. Alaska tabulates ranked-choice ballots after Election Day. California and Nevada count late-arriving mail ballots for days, and the Supreme Court's June ruling in Watson v. RNC lets 14 states and D.C. count mail ballots postmarked by Election Day that arrive afterward (R Street). Control of either chamber may not be known Tuesday night.

A slow count is a careful count, not a sign of fraud. Oklahoma's own process is built to be verified; our report The Paper Trail walks through how.

Where to follow results

About our sources. Forecasts and ratings come from Decision Desk HQ, Poliwave, the Silver Bulletin and Kalshi; polling averages from FiftyPlusOne; ballot measures from Ballotpedia; Oklahoma figures from the State Election Board. Numbers are as of Nov. 1, 2026, and will keep moving until polls close.

This content is for educational and informational purposes only. Let's Fix This is a nonpartisan 501(c)(3) organization and does not support or oppose any candidate for elected public office.

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